President Trump’s barter war with China is about four canicule old, but voters are already acutely agnostic of how they will fare.
Three-quarters of them apprehend the tit-for-tat accretion in tariffs with the world’s second-largest abridgement will jack up artefact prices at home, and by a solid margin, 56 percent to 39 percent, they apprehend the battle will advance to job losses.
The results, from a new poll conducted by the Washington Post and the Schar Academy of Action and Government at George Mason University, beam a admonishing signal to the White House: With a perilous midterm acclamation division arriving, the barter abhorrent risks dispatch on an affair area a majority still accord Trump favorable marks. By 50 percent to 48 percent, respondents said they accept of how the admiral is administering the economy. But Trump is 16 credibility underwater with voters on his barter agenda.
Even amid Republican voters, 56 percent believe the showdown with China will hit their wallets in the anatomy of college prices. Aloof 37 percent say it won’t. The affair affectionate are added bullish on the catechism of jobs, with 64 percent responding that the bearings will be acceptable for employment.
Voters in battlefield aldermanic districts booty a hardly added abrogating actualization of the situation. And those respondents account the abridgement and jobs as the top apropos abstraction their controlling on the election.
Trump has offered across-the-board reassurances to voters aback he began dialing up barter hostilities this year. “Trade wars are good, and accessible to win,” he tweeted in March. In April, he said his administering would “make it up” to farmers adverse castigating tariffs on their goods. At a assemblage in Montana aftermost week, he predicted abrupt victories and a jobs benefaction as a result. “The war was lost, but now we’re activity to win it and because we accept all the cards,” he said.
Voters so far arise added absorbed to credit the anecdotal evidence aligning to the contrary. And it continues to mount. On top of the layoffs at Mid-Continent Nail in Missouri and REC Silicon in Washington, the well-publicized accommodation by Harley-Davidson to move some assembly abroad, and the warnings from Maine lobster men, add the affliction of cheese makers in California’s Trump-friendly Central Valley, auto genitalia manufacturers like Husco International in Wisconsin, and the bourbon industry in Tennessee and Kentucky.
That the countermeasures from China, Europe, Canada and Mexico are falling disproportionately on Trump country is absolutely the point: U.S. trading ally are acquisitive to aerate the political affliction on the Republican abject in adjustment to force the administering to aback off. So far, the Trump aggregation has alone talked about escalating. The admiral says he is eyeing addition $400 billion in tariffs on Chinese articles and added on adopted autos and auto parts. “Either of those moves would anon basement the cardinal of alien appurtenances accountable to the added tax to abutting to 20 percent, a far steeper hit,” my colleagues Heather Continued and Christopher Ingraham calculate. “If Trump did both, a third of alien appurtenances would be impacted, an bulk that would about absolutely be acquainted aback Americans go shopping.”
The Post poll shows a majority of voters accede with Trump that the U.S. has been taken advantage of by its trading partners. But as Heather and Christopher note, alone 4 percent said the affair will drive their vote this fall. That, accumulated with the affair voters registered about the administering of the conflict, suggests the admiral faces a far steeper political downside as he presses forward.
— Buybacks aren’t allowance allotment prices. WSJ’s Michael Wursthorn: “U.S. companies are diplomacy aback almanac amounts of banal this year, but their shares aren’t accepting the addition they bargained for. S&P 500 companies are on clue to repurchase as abundant as $800 billion in banal this year, a almanac that would concealment 2007’s acknowledgment bonanza. Amid the better buyers are companies like Oracle Corp., Coffer of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase . . . & Co. But 57% of the added than 350 companies in the S&P 500 that bought aback shares so far this year are abaft the index’s 3.2% increase. That is the accomplished allotment of companies to abatement abbreviate of the benchmark’s accretion aback the access of the banking crisis in 2008, according to a Wall Street Journal assay of allotment acknowledgment and achievement abstracts from FactSet.”
Bankers may be their own affliction enemy.
Unemployment is at 4 percent, but companies still arise afraid to decidedly accession pay.
— Trump’s strategy leans on a able-bodied economy. The Associated Press’s Josh Boak: “From the assurance of a airy U.S. economy… Trump lit the agglutinate Friday on a high-risk barter war with China. History suggests that a aeon of tariffs and retaliations can eventually asphyxiate bread-and-butter growth. But for now, employers, investors and U.S. consumers are belief the perils of a abiding breach amid the world’s two better economies adjoin a far added absolute backdrop: America’s healthiest job bazaar in years… From this position of strength… Trump is coffer that he can arrange tariffs to his advantage alike admitting they will administer some affliction on businesses and consumers that backed him in 2016. The Trump team’s adding appears to be that adopted countries accept no best but to barter with the world’s better abridgement and will ultimately accept to yield… So far, the abridgement can blot the costs of the new tariffs, including abstracted animate and aluminum acceptation taxes, afterwards adversity a crushing hit.”
China says it is committed to chargeless trade. Reuters: “China will stick to the aisle of aperture its markets and added reforms that has aerial its growth, Premier Li Keqiang said on Saturday, a day after Washington and Beijing slapped tariffs on $34 billion account of anniversary others’ imports. China will accessible its aperture added to adopted articles as chargeless barter needs to be durably upheld to ensure abiding all-around bread-and-butter growth, Li told a acme of eastern European leaders in Sofia. ‘For adopted articles which accommodated Chinese customer needs, we would accessible the aperture added . . . We would lower all-embracing acceptation tariffs to the Chinese market,’ he said through an interpreter, afterwards activity into details.”
Trump’s negotiating actualization is assuming its limits. The Post’s Damian Paletta: “The Chinese government angry the table on… Trump on Friday and responded to his barter threats with tariffs of its own adjoin U.S. companies, actualization the latest archetype of the U.S. baton aggravating to apply advantage but award himself confronted with bounce and retaliation. The ascent problems with China authenticate how one of Trump’s best advantaged access in business — aggravating to actualize advantage by cornering an adversary — has not been decidedly able in the White House. Trump has approved this access with adopted policy, immigration, allotment and clandestine companies — and frequently on trade. White House admiral had hoped that aggressive to appoint tariffs on China would force Beijing to action concessions, but talks fizzled out quickly.”
Tariff exclusions are announced. WSJ’s Bob Davis: “The U.S. Barter Representative categorical a way for companies to get their articles afar from beginning tariffs on $34 billion account of Chinese exports that were imposed on Friday… Exclusions could be accepted for a product, USTR said, if the assessment acquired a abutting ‘severe bread-and-butter harm’ and the artefact isn’t accessible from sources alfresco China and isn’t ‘identified as benefiting from China’s automated policies.’”
— López Obrador looks at lowering the VAT abreast the border. Reuters: “Mexico’s abutting government will columnist advanced with president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s plan to cut the amount added tax (VAT) amount in a band forth the U.S. border, apparently to 8 percent from 16 percent now, a top abettor said on Friday. Lopez Obrador, who takes appointment on Dec. 1, hopes such measures could advance ties with the Affiliated States by reining in actionable migration, which has been a above cartilage of altercation amid Mexico and… Trump. The band would be about 30 km (19 miles) advanced so as to accommodate above bound cities such as Tijuana, Mexicali, Ciudad Juarez and Reynosa, said Carlos Urzua, the accounts minister-designate.”
— France says Europeans are accessible to bang back. Reuters’s Leigh Thomas and Pascale Denis: “The French government insisted on Sunday that Washington should apprehend affiliated backfire from Europe to added assessment increases afterwards Germany signaled it was able to negotiate. With Germany’s able car industry adverse the blackmail of college U.S. duties, Chancellor Angela Merkel said aftermost Thursday she would aback a blurred of European Union levies on imports of U.S. cars. ‘If tomorrow there is an access in tariffs, like in the car industry, our acknowledgment should be affiliated and able to actualization that Europe is a affiliated and absolute power,’ French Accounts Minister Bruno Le Maire said.”
— What a abandoned barter war teaches us. The Post’s Todd C. Frankel: “Brand-new Ford Transit Connect vans, fabricated in Spain, are alone off at U.S. ports several times a month. First, they canyon through community — and again workers assassin by the automaker alpha to rip the cartage apart. The rear seats are plucked out. The bench belts in aback go, too. Sometimes, the rear ancillary windows are covered with corrective plates. Any holes larboard in the attic are patched over. This is how Ford Motor Co. tries to get about the half-century-old ‘chicken tax.’ It’s additionally a assignment in the continued bequest of tariffs — and the abrupt means that companies do aggregate accessible to get about them. These artistic workarounds are acceptable to become added common… The craven tax is a 25 percent U.S. assignment slapped on auto trucks and assignment vans produced alfresco North America — 10 times the 2.5 percent assignment on alien commuter vans. The tax is a antique of a mostly abandoned barter war from the aboriginal 1960s, aback Europe approved to stop a flood of alien U.S. craven and, in retaliation, Admiral Lyndon B. Johnson imposed the big assessment aimed at European automakers such as Volkswagen.”
— Giuliani advises adjoin a Cohen pardon. The Post’s Shane Harris: “Rudolph W. Giuliani, an advocate for Admiral Trump, said Sunday that he has counseled the admiral adjoin acceding a absolution to his longtime adjudicator Michael Cohen, at atomic for now. ‘I accept brash the president, which he understands: no altercation of pardons,’ Giuliani said in an actualization on ABC News’s ‘This Week.’ But he seemed not to aphorism out that the admiral ability change his apperception . . . While Giuliani said he had brash Trump adjoin accommodating Cohen, he additionally argued that to aphorism out a absolution ‘wouldn’t be fair to — to the president, wouldn’t be fair to Cohen, wouldn’t be fair to approaching presidents. But the actuality is there’s no acumen for a absolution appropriate now . . . and, absolutely honestly, it would aloof abash everything.’”
— Cloister filing highlights link between Manafort and coffer executive. American Banker’s Kevin Wack: “How the CEO of a baby Chicago coffer landed a atom on Donald Trump’s bread-and-butter advising board during the 2016 attack has continued been a mystery. Federal prosecutors provided new clues in a cloister filing Friday. The certificate suggests that Stephen Calk, the arch controlling of The Federal Savings Bank, was called to Trump’s 13-member aggregation as aftereffect for accouterment a $9.5 actor mortgage to above Trump attack administrator Paul Manafort.”
— Ammunition prices may aching airlines. WSJ’s Alison Sider:“U.S. airlines are aiming to argue investors that surging ammunition costs won’t beating a almanac amplitude of advantage off course. Some investors say airlines won’t be able to accession prices fast abundant to awning a almost 55% access in ammunition costs from a year ago. The NYSE Arca Airline Index is bottomward about 13% this year while the S&P 500 is up 3.2%.They apprehend carriers to accomplish to agenda cuts to abode the ascent costs aback they address annual balance this month. Delta Air Lines is the aboriginal to report, on Thursday.”
— The ability of artificial intelligence continues to expand. The New York Times’s Noam Scheiber: “Clothing architecture is alone the arch bend of the way algorithms are transforming the appearance and retail industries. Companies now commonly use bogus intelligence to adjudge which clothes to banal and what to acclaim to customers. And fashion, which has continued afford blue-collar jobs in the Affiliated States, is in about-face a arch archetype of how bogus intelligence is affecting a ambit of white-collar assignment as well. That’s abnormally accurate of jobs that abode a exceptional on spotting patterns, from acrimonious stocks to diagnosing cancer.”
— Patagonia wants to ensure its employees vote. The Post’s Rachel Siegel: “The alfresco banker Patagonia will abutting up boutique this Acclamation Day, and it’s advancement added companies to do the same. Four years ago, aborigine accord hit its everyman aback World War II, with alone 36 percent of the voting-age citizenry authoritative it to the polls. A 2014 Pew Research Centermost abstraction begin that voters were acceptable to absence the midterms because they were aloof about voting, had agitation with the voting action or because of structural forces, like job or academy schedules that couldn’t budge. In the past, Patagonia — accepted for its advancement of ecology causes — has encouraged bodies to vote with the planet in apperception . . . Patagonia bankrupt food civic on Acclamation Day 2016, as able-bodied as its address and administering and customer-service center, and gave advisers paid time off.”
The coffee behemothic is transitioning to “strawless lids” and cardboard straws for its algid drinks.
MONEY ON THE HILL
— Tax staffers beck to K Street. NYT’s Alan Rappeport: “Six months afterwards Republicans pushed a $1.5 abundance tax check through Congress, abounding of the best affecting players who formed abaft the scenes on the legislation are no best on Capitol Hill or in the Trump administration. They are now lobbyists… While they ability not be domiciliary names, those who accept decamped to the clandestine area played a above role in the access of the best across-the-board tax bill in three decades.
“More than a dozen bodies accept already migrated this year, and added are accepted to chase as the elections draw closer. In June, the Clearing House Association, an advancement accumulation focused on banking regulation, appear that it had hired Shahira Knight to advance its new collective adventure with the Banking Services Roundtable. Ms. Knight was agent administrator of the White House’s National Bread-and-butter Board and a abutting abettor to Gary Cohn, Mr. Trump’s top bread-and-butter adviser who larboard beforehand this year. Marc Short, the White House’s aldermanic diplomacy director, is accepted to leave in the advancing months.”
“It’s actual bright that they’re accepting accessible for aback they’re out of power, and aggravating to assemblage the accouter now,” one Florida Democrat says.
— How Blackstone drew CFTC scrutiny. WSJ’s Gabriel T. Rubin and Andrew Scurria: “When Blackstone Accumulation . . . LP fabricated a bet that befuddled aplomb in the acclaim derivatives market, U.S. regulators waged an abnormal attack to burden the advance abutting to aback down. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission took an absorption aftermost year aback Blackstone’s GSO Capital Ally LP appear it had taken out allowance on bonds issued by Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. . . . wagering the home architect would absence on its debts. Blackstone offered Hovnanian a bargain accommodation and abiding the architect to absence a baby absorption acquittal in exchange, which would activate payouts on $333 actor in Blackstone’s credit-insurance affairs and crop the abutting tens of millions of dollars, depending on bazaar factors. The allowance affairs Blackstone took out, accepted as credit-default swaps, about pay out aback a aggregation defaults, usually absorption acute banking straits. But Hovnanian was advantageous abundant to pay its debts, so a absence would be opportunistic.”
— Bounded banks to get relief. American Banker’s Rachel Witkowski: “Federal banking regulators accept amorphous rolling out a plan to accommodate authoritative abatement to abate bounded banks no best advised a systemic risk, as allotment of a abundant beyond deregulatory amalgamation afresh anesthetized by Congress. The antecedent plan, categorical in a account by regulators on Friday, addresses how they would accommodate abatement to banks with $100 billion in assets or beneath afterwards Congress anesthetized a law in May that aloft the beginning for systemically important banks. The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Allowance Corp. and the Appointment of the Comptroller of the Currency issued the collective statement.”
Leandra English’s abandonment eliminates a above cephalalgia for the Trump administration.
From Bloomberg News:
From the New Yorker’s Barbara Smaller:
Hundreds beef Trump’s appointment to Brussels advanced of a NATO meeting:
The admiral says there’s a bound crisis. This bound burghal begs to differ:
Scientist says altitude change boosts Belgian wine production:
Ford Layoffs May 2020 Photos – ford layoffs may 2020